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Time Series Analysis in Python
Introduction
What does the course cover (4:27)
Setting up the working environment
Setting up the environment - Do not skip, please! (0:55)
Why Python and Jupyter? (4:51)
Installing Anaconda (3:22)
Jupyter Dashboard - Part 1 (2:27)
Jupyter Dashboard - Part 2 (5:13)
Installing the Necessary Packages (1:24)
Introduction to Time Series in Python
Introduction to Time Series Data (3:56)
Notation for Time Series Data (1:26)
Peculiarities (2:42)
Loading the Data (2:06)
Examining the Data (5:31)
Plotting the Data (4:52)
The QQ Plot (2:54)
Creating a Time Series Object in Python
Transforming String inputs into DateTime Values (4:54)
Using Dates as Indices (2:49)
Setting the Frequency (2:56)
Filling Missing Values (6:11)
Adding and Removing Columns in a Data Frame (3:43)
Splitting up the Data (4:17)
Appendix: Updating the Dataset
Working with Time Series in Python
White Noise (6:54)
Random Walk (5:31)
Stationarity (2:30)
Determining Weak Form Stationarity (5:49)
Seasonality (5:12)
Correlation Between Past and Present Values (1:32)
The ACF (6:00)
The PACF (5:14)
Picking the Correct Model
A Quick Guide to Picking the Correct Model (2:32)
The Autoregressive (AR) Model
The AR Model (5:28)
Examining the ACF and PACF of Prices (4:57)
Fitting an AR(1) Model for Index Prices (4:54)
Fitting Higher Lag AR Models for Prices (9:16)
Using Returns (5:41)
Examining the ACF and PACF of Returns (2:07)
Fitting an AR(1) Model for Index Returns (2:33)
Fitting Higher Lag AR Models for Returns (3:45)
Normalizing Values (5:23)
Model Selection for Normalized Returns (2:37)
Examining the AR Model Residuals (5:52)
Unexpected Shocks from Past Periods (1:23)
The Moving Average (MA) Model
The MA Model (5:04)
Fitting an MA(1) Model for Returns (3:49)
Fitting Higher-Lag MA Models for Returns (7:30)
Examining the MA Model Residuals for Returns (6:19)
Model Selection for Normalized Returns (3:39)
Fitting an MA(1) Model for Prices (5:19)
Past Values and Past Errors (2:25)
The Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Model
The ARMA Model (3:34)
Fitting a Simple ARMA Model for Returns (4:18)
Fitting a Higher-Lag ARMA Model for Returns - part 1 (5:15)
Fitting a Higher-Lag ARMA Model for Returns - part 2 (5:15)
Fitting a Higher-Lag ARMA Model for Returns - part 3 (6:20)
Examining the ARMA Model Residuals of Returns (7:15)
ARMA for Prices (7:57)
ARMA Models and Non-stationary Data (1:57)
The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model
The ARIMA Model (6:24)
Fitting a Simple ARIMA Model for Prices (5:46)
Fitting a Higher Lag ARIMA Model for Prices - part 1 (6:11)
Fitting a Higher Lag ARIMA Model for Prices - part 2 (6:13)
Higher Levels of Integration (3:57)
Using ARIMA Models for Returns (3:21)
Outside Factors and the ARIMAX Model (4:09)
Seasonal Models - the SARIMAX Model (7:48)
Predicting Stability (1:41)
The ARCH Model
The ARCH Model (5:37)
Volatility (2:59)
A More Detailed Look of the ARCH Model (6:19)
The arch_model Method (7:30)
The Simple ARCH Model (6:52)
Higher Lag ARCH Models (3:05)
An ARMA Equivalent of the ARCH Model (1:20)
The GARCH Model
The GARCH Model (3:16)
The ARMA and the GARCH (2:17)
The Simple GARCH Model (3:28)
Higher-Lag GARCH Models (3:39)
An Alternative to the Model Selection Process (0:58)
Auto ARIMA
Auto ARIMA (4:44)
Preparing Python for Model Selection (1:20)
The Default Best Fit (5:56)
Basic Auto ARIMA Arguments (10:07)
Advanced Auto ARIMA Arguments (4:30)
The Goal Behind Modeling (0:57)
Forecasting
Introduction to Forecasting (7:17)
Simple Forecasting (Returns with AR and MA) (3:59)
Intermediate Forecasting (MAX Models) (6:04)
Advanced Forecasting (Seasonal Models) (3:58)
Auto ARIMA Forecasting (4:51)
Pitfalls of Forecasting (6:13)
Forecasting Volatility (5:31)
Appendix: Multiple Regression Forecasting (7:41)
Business Case
Business Case - A Look Into the Automobile Industry (27:47)
Simple Forecasting (Returns with AR and MA)
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